Listen to this blog with one of our AI generated voices.

Machines all Pick Journalism, Maker Predicts Sandman 

The Kentucky Derby is one of the world’s great sporting events with tens of millions betting on the race, attending Derby parties, and rooting for their horse to win.  

Here at Précis AI, we are interested in how well various AIs would handicap the races against a skilled and experienced human – so, we’ve pitted Précis Founder David Fuscus against six AIs including ChatGPT and CoPilot.  

Predicting the Unpredictable

Handicapping thoroughbred horseraces historically blends data analysis and nuance – a special skill traditionally honed over years at the track. While the AIs rely on meticulously calculated odds and historical trend analysis, Fuscus relies on crunching numbers by devoting hours to reviewing race charts and leveraging his experience from off-track conversations.

“The Derby is the toughest of races given it’s a large field with 20 horses – it can be a cavalry charge. AI is great at analyzing data, but that is only one side to picking the winner’s coin – the other is art and experience. I’m taking the AIs down.” – David Fuscus

But the contest is more than just predicting a winner. It tests whether artificial intelligence can embrace the unpredictable nature of a 20-horse Kentucky Derby by effectively using reasoning and judgement. And Fuscus is well suited for the challenge. He’s a lifelong racing fan and skilled handicapper. 

In horse racing, the Pick-Six bet is selecting the winners of six races in a row and doing it successfully. This is often considered the hardest thing in handicapping with many skilled handicappers never hitting the Pick-Six. Yet Fuscus has won it nine times, hence his preparedness against the AIs.  

For the contest, the six AIs and Fuscus picked their top three finishing horses plus one longshot. A win gets 10 points; 5 points for second and 3 points for third. The wild card is the long shot – the handicapper whose long shot finishes highest will get an additional 5 points. 

A Closer Look at AI and Human Picks

The AIs are rallying around the mainstream favorite, with all six picking Journalism. Both sides are rallying around similar picks, like the stalwart favorite emerging from the muddled assortment of odds being the consensus. With its strong West Coast credentials and consistent momentum, Journalism represents the data-driven option that algorithms cherish—making it the darling in the AI lineup. 

Fuscus’s top pick is the West Point Thoroughbred horse Sandman. “Sandman is made for running a mile and a quarter,” said Fuscus. “In every previous race, he has pulled away from the pack at the finish line, so he’ll do great with the longer distance.” 

Many experts emphasize that Derby outcomes prove unpredictable. Kevin Kilroy, celebrated racing analyst at a prominent sports network, once noted, “No algorithm can capture the chaos of a 20-horse field when dust and destiny intertwine.” Such sentiments underscore the human ability to read beyond raw data – just look at Rich Strike in 2022 at 80-1, Country House in 2019 at 65-1 or Giancomo in 2005 at 65-1. 

Irony dances in the details of this challenge.  

Imagine AI confidently wagering on a horse based only on pedigree and speed figures, while a seasoned human insider bets on a runner with a notoriously unpredictable late surge. The contrast, at times comical, will test the limits of generative AI reasoning versus the dynamic environment of race day.  

“Horses do not run solely to the script of statistics. They perform with a spontaneity and magic that can defy reason and analysis.” – David Fuscus

Both camps, however, share a mutual respect for the complexity of their shared battleground. The machines use models; thus, Fuscus’s admiration for the AIs precision of calculations. Each side contributes to a narrative that transforms analysis into performance art—a race where every second holds the potential of victory.  

While the AIs highlight evergreen data points—morning line favorites, simulation outcomes, performance trends—Fuscus tips his hat to the human aspects of racing: a horse’s spirit, the jockey’s subtle body language, and even the unpredictable weather on race day which all hold sway over the outcome. Perhaps, in the coming race, this human flair might just outpace pure algorithmic precision. 

Concluding this spirited duel, the message resonates: ingenuity blossoms at the crossroads of machine precision and human intuition. In the end, whether one picks with data or the gut, the Derby continues to deliver thrills, laughter, and an enduring celebration of unpredictability— and a reminder that sometimes, the race between man and machine becomes as captivating as the race on the track itself. 

About Précis AI    

Précis AI builds secure, industry-specific Generative AI platforms that are trained and customized to meet the unique needs of individual industries. Headquartered in Washington, DC, with operations in the United States, Canada, and Europe, Précis AI is transforming how industries work through specialized AI solutions. 

About Précis Public Relations 

Précis Public Relations is at the cutting edge of public relations, providing specialized solutions crafted for the nuanced demands of the PR industry. Leveraging proprietary AI technology and in-depth sector expertise, Precis PR offers unparalleled quality and insight that outperforms generalist tools. With a focus on efficiency, Précis allows PR professionals to enhance their productivity and scale their output seamlessly across a variety of communication channels.